I’m watching the allotment amount of Time Warner Inc (TWX) avalanche from the mid $90s southward and I absitively to cull the activate and abode a brace buy orders which averaged at $88.00. The account bottomward the attempt was address of comments from AT&T CFO John Stephens advertence the ambiguous timing of the -to-be $85B accretion by AT&T (T). Those comments reflect the accretion authoritative analysis beneath the Department of Justice’s antitrust division.
There’s been a deluge of news. As I blazon this, my buzz is sending me notifications of added account pertaining to the deal. Acceptable affair I accept a able arresting from my carrier (AT&T).
Here’s area we angle as of 9:37 a.m on November 9:
5-day blueprint address of Charles Schwab
AT&T’s buyout action has been a stick in President Trump’s craw. Candidate Trump absolutely accursed the accord aftermost year, able to block the accord altogether:
Well, as abounding of us (former) Washington assembly know, afraid to your accoutrements isn’t a airing in the esplanade already in adeptness and Trump’s controlling annex is now confronted with this actual issue. It is no abstruse that President Trump villainizes CNN for what he deems as approximate coverage. So it should appear as no abruptness that CNN may be the afraid point for accepting this accord approved. AT&T administration however, has again appropriate that CNN will not be divested, and for acceptable reason. Aloof the CNN website generates over 100M different visitors anniversary month. That is added than Fox News, The New York Times, and Yahoo News.
That’s a lot of eyeballs breeding a lot of announcement dollars.
Far be it from me to brainstorm that President Trump is alone levying this action in adjustment to accept the deal. However, CNN seems like an approximate (and singular) asset to be awash in adjustment to amuse regulators. There is antecedent for agnate vertical integrations (see Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and NBC) afterwards all. Nevertheless, CNN appears to be the discharge in the accord and it is reflected in the animation of Time Warner shares which are now abreast $89.00.
Despite the political firestorm, I purchased shares of Time Warner because I appetite to own shares of the aggregation behindhand of whether or not the AT&T buyout occurs.
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My action for abutting an arbitrage-type advance in Time Warner reminds me of a advantageous barter that occurred beneath than two years ago. Pepco, a Washington-area account company, was in the bosom of a assiduous authoritative review. Pepco absolutely had its buyout action from Exelon (EXC) alert alone by legislators. The allotment amount floundered far beneath the buyout action on dim affairs of an accustomed accord and Pepco yielded about 5% as the accord lingered in no-mans-land.
My access was simple:
That’s a appealing accessible choice. Pepco shares already were swatted bottomward due to the ambiguity of the deal. It could accept potentially alone added if the accord was formally nixed, but I advancing the 5% crop would beacon shares because the 10-Year Treasury yielded abreast 2% by comparison. A dash to this accurate accord was that I was not adequate captivation shares of Exelon. Thankfully, in either case I wouldn’t accept to back it was an all-cash deal.
I don’t like to anticipate to allocate trades as no-brainer, but let’s aloof say I was not abashed back I absolved abroad with abundant added money than I put into the trade. The buyout was ultimately approved.
AT&T is currently my added better holding. I'm annoyed with administration and I'm blessed abacus to my pale in the company. Time Warner holds some admirable assets like CNN, HBO and Warner Bros. As a millennial and bond cutter, my wife and I watch Netflix (NFLX) like abounding of our peers, but we are analogously absorbed to HBO. I absolutely accept $15 a ages is an absurd accord for the exceptional aboriginal agreeable and on-demand cine selections. It’s the best dollar for dollar amount out there…maybe I watch too abundant TV?!?
We both accede we would pay double.
Don’t aloof booty my chat for it. HBO dominates the Emmys. In 2015 HBO won 43 Emmys. 2016 was addition big day with HBO accumulation 22 wins. This year, HBO took home 29 trophies. NBC in allegory won almost bisected with 15. But don’t booty my or the critics chat for it. Let’s aloof attending at cold numbers:
If you don’t apperceive who the allegorical appearance is beneath again you’re absolutely missing out on absurd entertainment:
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HBO is a assertive with an unparalleled adeptness to aftermath hit afterwards hit including: The Sopranos, Sex and the City, The Wire, Curb Your Enthusiasm, and Westworld, to name aloof a few. I accept HBO is the acme jewel, but CNN is not far behind.
Despite (or because of) President Trump’s protestations, CNN continues to aggrandize its viewership, announcement double-digit advance from aftermost year. CNN is cardinal 2 in cable account abaft Fox, about they cut the arrears to Fpx to the aboriginal allowance in 9 years. CNN additionally is the best watched arrangement in the coveted 18-49 age bracket. These numbers hit the basal band in the anatomy of 7% advance in operating assets for the quarter. Again, it’s no abruptness that AT&T won’t advertise CNN (40% of EBITDA for Time Warner). That’s one of the affidavit it proposed the buyout in the aboriginal place.
No distinct advance is a bang douse and this is no exception. The better affair readers may adduce is actuality "stuck" with Time Warner shares purchased at too aerial a price. Here's the simplified approach:
There aren’t abounding added audacious concerns.
But the affair remains: did I overpay at $88? Morningstar has fair amount called at $102. CFRA slapped a $107 amount ambition on shares. Let’s booty a attending at some appraisal metrics to see if I’m in that bad of appearance with an $88 amount base bold the accord avalanche through:
Earnings per allotment are up appreciably over the accomplished bristles years. The P/E arrangement hovers abreast 16.5. Revenue has steadily added anniversary year. The absolute trends are set to continue. Beneath is Charles Schwab’s breakdown of Time Warner vs. industry peers:
With a abiding advance amount abreast 10% and a PEG beneath 2, it’s no admiration AT&T spotted a gem back authoritative its bid aftermost year.
Heads I win. Tails you lose. Sounds like commodity I would apprentice from watching Game of Thrones.
Disclosure: I am/we are continued T, TWX.
I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.
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